“it is not certain that everything is uncertain”
blaise pascal (1654)
probability simply places odds and puts
blaise was probably the first, with fermat
though the line traces
to huygens to la place to bernoulli to kolmogorov to taleb
yet
stoppard’s rosencrantz and guildenstern are still my favorite
las vegas is the living embodiment of the law of large numbers
while
all of nature conforms to the central limit theorem
consider
probability is an immutable statistical by-product of choice
any choice
every choice
take any set
define the givens
define the variables
compute the odds
flip the coin
results become the new
set | given | variable
so
this is the way to choose reality
take comfort in the fact that
because of uncertainty, you can never know completely
because of incompleteness, nothing can ever be complete
because of symmetry, it can all be simply beautiful
uncertainty is just another word for luck